California is preparing for a potentially historic El Niño that could bring an unusually stormy winter, with federal forecasters warning that the developing climate pattern has a strong chance of becoming one of the most powerful on record.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says there is a greater than 90% chance of a very strong El Niño during the fall and winter of 2026-27 and a 75% chance that its strength during October through December will exceed previous El Niño events in records dating to 1950.
For California, the concern extends beyond heavy rain. Elevated ocean levels, powerful waves and winter storms could combine with high tides to increase the threat of coastal flooding and erosion, while atmospheric rivers could produce periods of intense rainfall, inland flooding and heavy mountain snow.
California officials are already preparing. Gov. Gavin Newsom declared a state of emergency in September to accelerate preparations, stage resources and help communities address potential flooding, landslides, debris flows and coastal damage before the most active part of the winter storm season arrives.
The outlook does not mean California is guaranteed a destructive or exceptionally wet winter. El Niño shifts large-scale weather patterns and increases the likelihood of certain conditions, but individual storms, rainfall totals and their locations cannot be predicted months in advance. NOAA’s seasonal outlook currently favors wetter-than-normal conditions across California, with the strongest probabilities near parts of the coast as winter progresses.
The Readovia Lens
What makes this El Niño particularly concerning for California is the combination of risks. A powerful El Niño can influence storm tracks while unusually high coastal water levels leave beaches and low-lying communities more vulnerable when major storms, large waves and high tides arrive together. The next few months will determine whether those ingredients converge into an unusually damaging winter.
